Last December, The Economist and the polling organization YouGov released a survey claiming that a significant portion of America’s youth held antisemitic beliefs. According to the poll, one in five young Americans believed that the Holocaust was a myth, and 28 percent thought that Jews in America had too much power. The results sparked controversy and made international headlines.
However, the survey was conducted using an opt-in method, where participants were recruited online and often paid to take surveys. This approach is known to attract “bogus respondents” who may not answer questions truthfully. A recent analysis by the Pew Research Center suggested that the numbers reported in the antisemitism poll were highly inflated. In a more rigorous poll by Pew, only 3 percent of young Americans agreed that the Holocaust was a myth.
Survey science is facing challenges in the modern era. Traditional polling methods, which rely on randomly selected participants to represent the entire population, are considered the gold standard for gauging public opinion. However, reaching people by phone has become increasingly difficult, leading to plummeting response rates and rising costs. As a result, online polls have become more prevalent, despite being less accurate.
Some pollsters defend opt-in methods, arguing that traditional polling has its own flaws. While random sampling is scientifically sound, it often suffers from low participation rates. Pollsters failed to accurately gauge support for Donald Trump in the 2016 and 2020 elections because they didn’t hear from enough of his supporters. Although there have been issues with quality control in some online polls, YouGov’s chief scientist Douglas Rivers maintains that their overall track record is strong.
Despite efforts to improve polling methods, sensational headlines continue to proliferate. For example, a significant percentage of American adults believe in myths like chocolate milk coming from brown cows or Judge Judy serving on the Supreme Court. Some even resorted to drinking bleach to prevent COVID-19. The credibility of such findings is questionable, even from reputable pollsters like YouGov.
The evolving landscape of polling science is causing confusion among the public and experts alike. Distinguishing between reliable survey results and misleading information has become increasingly challenging. This uncertainty reflects the need for new methods to adapt to a society where traditional phone surveys are no longer as effective.
As the 2024 elections approach, the spotlight on polling methods is likely to intensify. The repercussions of inaccurate surveys extend beyond social science and can undermine trust in the public’s ability to govern itself. Addressing these challenges and ensuring the integrity of polling data will be crucial in maintaining the credibility of survey research in the future.
